• DupaCycki@lemmy.world
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      10 hours ago

      In such a hypothetical scenario Ukraine becomes part of Russia, and nothing really changes for the rest of the world. Nobody has any obligations to rescue Ukraine. Sure, we can start a war to reclaim Ukraine’s territory, but we’re not going to. Likewise, Putin won’t attack Europe, because Russia can’t afford such a large-scale conflict. Especially one that would likely end with their loss.

      • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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        6 hours ago

        Even when Russia gains all of the territory it ever needed to liberate, Ukraine will continue nazification and terrorism after ceasefire, because their western handlers are so desperate to distract from their worthlessness.

    • vane@lemmy.world
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      6 hours ago

      Moldova next because it’s not in NATO. Next Romania with Serbia and Hungary as ally. After that all old Yugoslavia. That can be like 2030 agenda. Many would say that Poland is next but they have big border with Russia, USA military bases and no value other than terrain and Russia have no problem with terrain. It’s easier and more profitable to go just south and gain access to the Mediterranean Sea. That opens up border with Africa with Middle East and cuts down Europe from south Oil and Gas sources.

    • Moidialectica [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      Do people of Europe actually want war with Russia? Wasn’t there a whole scandal in Romania because of people explicitly not wanting to have war?

      if war starts, I can only imagine it’ll be Vietnam/Ukraine all over again, except in proper EU territory this time

      • PMmeTrebuchets@lemmy.zip
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        11 hours ago

        I do not want war but I also am not sure what will happen. I feels bad to just let Russia have Ukraine (if it covers to that). Because you know they will not stop there.

    • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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      1 day ago

      NATO can’t field an actual war against Russia, NATO countries don’t have the industrial capacity to do so. NATO has big scary tools, but not many of them, and in a protracted war where the industrial power wins Russia would win out. It would be very bloody, long, and NATO would lose, so it’s unlikely that there will be all-out war.

        • m532@lemmygrad.ml
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          3 hours ago

          Trashcan for usa military - 10000$

          Trashcan for russia military - 10$ maybe?

          Therefore we can conclude that russia has ~100x the military production of usa.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          10 hours ago

          NATO outspends Russia 10-1. That doesn’t translate to actual firepower or sustained war capacity. Russian production is much cheaper for comparable quality.

          • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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            10 hours ago

            If the same thing is 10 times cheaper i would argue that the quality is not comparable. USA alone outpower any other country in war capacity and assets, if you add the the rest of NATO countries it sound like a joke to claim russia could match them.

            • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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              5 hours ago

              Russia produces 4x the amount of artillery shells as all of NATO. SU 35 is half the cost of F35, with better flight availability. Missile technology of Russia is far (at least 5 years) ahead of US. Drone technology is Russia, China, Ukraine only capable. Nuclear powered torpedo is undetected annihilation of any carrier fleet or port in the world. US military spending is just corruption for political cronies. Incompetent pursuit of higher tech they are incapable of implementing, but get paid for anyway.

              • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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                3 hours ago

                Russia produces 4x the amount of artillery shells as all of NATO

                Whatever USA is producing is 4x times more advanced than that.

                SU 35 is half the cost of F35, with better flight availability.

                Assuming we take for granted that a fourth generation plane is better than F35s, keep in mind that USA alone has more than 500 of these and hundreds of F22

                Missile technology of Russia is far (at least 5 years) ahead of US

                Russia technology is overall 10 years behind of US

                Drone technology is Russia, China, Ukraine only capable.

                USA started using military drones more than 20 years ago.

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perdix_(drone)

                US military spending is just corruption for political cronies.

                I’m sure there’s plenty of corruption and any cent spent on military and war is useless. by not acknowledging USA war assets i think you are downplaying how trillions of public money are being wasted.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              10 hours ago

              You’re confusing the monetary price with actual, qualitative results. The same widget costs more money to produce in the US than it would in Russia, Russia has lower labor costs and higher industrialization. There’s also effectiveness, drones are cheap and can often achieve the same or better results than traditional ballistic missiles that cost more. The fact that the west spends a lot is due to the millitary industrial complex. To equate capital investment across different economies is an error, you can find the same medicine in the US for hundreds of times the price as you can in Canada, as an alternative example.

              • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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                3 hours ago

                Why do you think it cost 10 times more to produce it in the USA? How many american and european engineers do you know that works in russia for 10x cheaper salary?

                Assuming what you say is true should we move to compare war assets? What’s the russian counterpart to hundreds of F22 and the b2?

                There’s also effectiveness, drones are cheap and can often achieve the same or better results than traditional ballistic missiles that cost more.

                USA has been using military drones for more than two decades

                you can find the same medicine in the US for hundreds of times the price as you can in Canada, as an alternative example.

                You are messing up things. That’s the price the consumer pays for medicines because of a monopoly

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  2 hours ago

                  Cost of living is higher in the US, ergo wages are higher, ergo production costs more. This is true across all fields, plus the lack of industrialization means it’s more difficult to manufacture. Why are all of your goods made in China, Vietnam, etc?

                  Privatized industry also costs a lot more, especially the millitary industrial complex. I’m aware that the US has drones, I’m also aware that the drones of today are entirely different and far cheaper to produce.

                  • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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                    2 hours ago

                    Cost of living is higher in the US

                    Technological and industrial level is also higher in the US, expect a military widget manufactured there to be more advanced than one manufactured in a country where production is 10x cheaper.

                    This is true across all fields, plus the lack of industrialization means it’s more difficult to manufacture.

                    USA and europe do not lack industrialization.

                    Why are all of your goods made in China, Vietnam, etc?

                    Why are they not made in russia? They are made in china because it’s cheaper for western companies to produce there and because they can get away with such exploitation. Your goods aren’t military assets.

                • m532@lemmygrad.ml
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                  3 hours ago

                  Do you know about that thing called capitalism, where the engineers’ wages get stolen by the bourgies?

      • DNU@lemmy.world
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        11 hours ago

        This thread is legit pure standup comedy. Cowbee the one and only one who understands the military complex like no other. Here you go, welcome to my blocklist, you shant be missed.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          1 day ago

          They are steadily achieving all of their stated objectives for the SMO. Russia isn’t trying to do a Marvel-style total destruction of Ukraine like you see in hollywood depictions of war.

          • Tenderizer78@lemmy.ml
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            1 day ago

            Their goalposts have moved. Originally they attacked on all fronts including the capital and expected to topple Ukraine within a week.

            • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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              5 hours ago

              Russia withdrew from Kyiv because they were fooled into thinking they got a peace deal.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              Their goalposts haven’t moved, their strategy was to open with shock and awe and then push for protracted war, taking advantage of surprise. They didn’t expect to topple Ukraine in a week, that’s largely a misquote from the early 2010s.

          • Prove_your_argument@piefed.social
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            1 day ago

            “steadily” as in… they complete one every couple of years? How long until they’re done? 10-20-30 years? They started this in 2014 and 11 years later they’ve accomplished next to nothing beyond creating a pile of bodies.

            If germany took this long to take poland it probably wouldn’t have been world war at all.

            • Alchalide@lemmy.world
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              13 hours ago

              I heard something along the lines of: If a snail started crawling at the same time Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The snail would have crossed the polish border by now.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              The SMO started in 2022. In 2014, after the western-backed Euromaidan coup, Crimea was annexed but then there were multiple attempts to resolve things peacefully, called the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev broke both times. In 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from the new far-right led Ukraine, fastforward to 2022 after a decade of fighting and Russia agrees to go in and resolve things by force.

              Since 2022, Russia has steadily been gaining more and more territory, and has nearly completely taken the four oblasts they declared as their targets for annexation. Ukraine has slowly but steadily been losing ground, and NATO has proven to be incapable of matching Russian industrial output. Russia isn’t trying to do a Blitzkreig, they are going carefully to fully demillitarize Ukraine and prevent casualties on their own end. They have the industrial capacity to field a protracted war, so they are playing to their advantage.

              • manuallybreathing@lemmy.ml
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                13 hours ago

                Russia moved to take Crimea only after the Ukranian govt was couped by the USA, because there’s a Russian naval base on the Crimean peninsula

                being surprised by this is like saying the USA wouldn’t invade South Korea (or any of the 100s of states with US bases) if their govt was couped by another government

                as always, you’re more patient than I, comrade, I respect you immensely

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  13 hours ago

                  Yep, when it comes to Russia liberals start thinking about their actions, past, present, and future, in terms of how evil they are, rather than as another country. It’s always too weak yet too strong, always capable of steering foreign elections and taking on all of Europe but also about to collapse, etc. It’s tiring, because after the dust settles the liberal cope will always be that NATO didn’t support Ukraine enough for them to win, which will always be an unfalsifiable hypothesis.

                  And thanks, I appreciate it comrade!

              • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                1 day ago

                I read a few articles that said at russias current pace it would take them a hundred years to take Ukraine.

                • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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                  5 hours ago

                  Russia stops at Zaporishia and Dniepro (and Donetsk) if Ukraine wants to keep losing. Kherson, Odessa, Karkiv if Ukraine really insists. They have other territories they are willing to trade to facilitate important liberations without having to destroy what they liberate. At any rate, the pace of Russian advance has increased in last year, and increased again in last months. It is far higher than the 3.5 year average of the SMO.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  1 day ago

                  They aren’t trying to take Ukraine, though, and they can progress faster as frontlines are broken through. Pokrovsk, as an example, is currently encircled by Russian forces and will probably be abandoned by Kiev soon, or a large-scale siege will occur.

                  Whether you’re pro-Ukrainian or not, it’s important to recognize that Ukraine is steadily losing ground and has far less staying power in a protracted war than Russia does. Russia’s advancing slowly and basically forcing a long-term war, which works in their favor.

                  • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                    Shame Russia is doing so poorly after so long and with so many casualties. Plus their own economy is in the shitter. Having to import oil and gas now since their refineries seem to always be on fire. And pick up soldiers from Africa and Indonesia and let’s not forget North Korea.

                    Ukraine will fight to the last man

      • SreudianFlip@sh.itjust.works
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        20th C thinking.

        • NATO countries would tool up fairly quickly on a war footing
        • strategic advantage is no longer about tanks and artillery, it’s about the next few generations of drones
        • dirty tricks haven’t even begun, really
        • energy capacity is at this weird turning point of shifting production options and efficiencies, makes predictions harder
        • Ukraine’s industrial capacity has changed to a war footing and they now export drones
        • a non-democratic Ukraine would be a risk as big as oligarchy Russia
        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          NATO countries have hollowed out their industry for the last century, instead preferring to outsource production and plunder the world. Further, ballistic munitions are still useful, as are drones. There’s no realistic scenario where NATO countries can mobilize to full wartime economies, not with industry as hollowed out as it is.

          • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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            5 hours ago

            NATO strategy so far has been “hope Russians believe the lies we tell our people to support this war, and further believe that we have always loved Russians and wanted the best for them.” It’s the free world that would resort to absurdly unpopular fascist mandatory drafts instead of high military pay, because western corruption has always been excuses for oligarchist supremacist weapons profits. People don’t care until they are threatened with austerity and conscription.

          • AWistfulNihilist@lemmy.world
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            It’s cute you think the military industrial complex is so weak, or that the near moritorium on long range ballistcs hasn’t been incredibly beneficial to Russia.

            In reality, the second money starts pouring into a European war effort, all thoughts of AI will be gone, they’ll be pulling apart gpus for spare silicon for the war machine. That’s profit at an unbelievable scale.

            Like this almost feels like cope…

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              21 hours ago

              The MIC runs on the profit motive, it’s far more expensive to develop comparable tools than compared to state-run industry, and the west has already holowed out its own industry.

              • AWistfulNihilist@lemmy.world
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                21 hours ago

                Profit motive doesn’t equal capital investment. Watch how fast the machine moves when profit motive meets profit opportunity. I saw this hollowed out line repeated a whole bunch, your latest mantra?

                “There is no industry in Bah Sing Se”

                Unfortunately my recently rested and bathed friend, Russia is barely moving a war against a tiny nation getting scraps compared to even 1 day of munitions used killing Palestinians. It’s not even hard to debunk this one, you just sound silly.

                Wow, you’re so wrong in this you’re actually getting negative in your hugbox, that’s wild. Guess you can’t win em all.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  21 hours ago

                  Russia is steadily achieving their aims, they don’t need to rapidly advance because they aren’t trying to take all of Ukraine. They have the industrial capacity to be steady and thorough. Ukraine is putting up a fight, but can’t actually last for much longer.

                  Secondly, regarding the profit motive, it will always result in less efficient investment. Industry is hollowed out, and can’t be built overnight. Missiles, drones, etc cost far more to produce in the US than in Russia for comparable results.

                  • AWistfulNihilist@lemmy.world
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                    20 hours ago

                    Comparable results AJAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAJAHAHAHAHAHA!

                    I’m sorry, I sneezed.

                    The fact that it’s lasted as long as it had is an incredible indictment of Russia. You are conflating the war time economy Russia has morphed into out of necessity because they’ve been so deadlocked. That’s not counting the battle and infrastructure damage they continue to suffer at the hands of a small nation with a comedian leader using acme tnt taped to drones.

                    Ukraine, a former nazi state using munitions that were used against them in WW2, required Russia to retool their entire industry to get the land equivalent of the parking lot of a Wendy’s.

                    No matter how you slice it, it’s pathetic. Frankly China will likely sell munitions to Nato when the money is there if it’s against Russia.

                    Like seriously, you realize how far off you are from reality here.

            • lepinkainen@lemmy.world
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              13 hours ago

              Putin RAN to a negotiating table when Trump hinted at Tomahawks being available to Ukraine.

              Then immediately backed down when TACO.

      • I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.

        I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.

        But Israel-iran has showed that not even America has the ability to do an actual war against another industrial power

        • Evilsandwichman [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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          I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.

          I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.

          Okay wild fantasies aside, back here in the real world, what’s NATO supposed to actually do? If they try to ‘devastate’ Russia, as in attempt to turn it into Gaza, Russia will 100% nuke the offending countries seriously firing this kind of barrage against them. They’ve been reasonable against Ukraine because Ukraine has hardly been a threat (in fact most Russians would probably say too reasonable), but if a threat they’ve credibly been fearing for decades decided to pull out all the stops, so will they; NATO knows this which is why they weren’t officially in the war this whole time; the best time to be involved was literally day 1, the next best time was day 2, and so on and so forth.

          The simple fact is when Ukraine falls, the war is over; you want a country that was willing to risk their safety to get involved in a conflict? You have Yemen, they showed what a country willing to get bombed is willing to do; Euro countries don’t want to get bombed; Let me say that again: Euro countries don’t. want. to. get. bombed. All these countries in Europe had their chance to show how far they were willing to oppose Russia, back when Ukraine had a lot more people to throw in the meat grinder; there’s a lot less Ukrainians now who can and will fight, and Euro forces would have to bear the brunt of the fighting, and if they were willing to do this, they would’ve done it far earlier. Europe. Is. Scared. They won’t join this fight.

          When Ukraine falls, the war is over.

            • PolandIsAStateOfMind@lemmy.ml
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              17 hours ago

              I love libs in this thread, some of them are like “Ukraine is winning” and some like “Russia will invade entire Europe”. They gained both takes by following the same propaganda.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          If they had to, then they would try shock and awe. Protracted war wouldn’t work out, whoever has industry holds the cards long-term. Russia would go for stall tactics, I would think.

      • RepleteLocum@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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        .ml loser coping. NATO would have air superiority within hours and crush your balls. You’re using drones instead of artillery and anti tank missiles because you’re so broke.

        • FlyingCircus@lemmy.world
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          Ah, and here we have it, the Lemmy “Anarchist” showing their true allegiance to the capitalist world order.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          14 hours ago

          I’m not Russian, for one, and for two, drone warfare is used by all current conflicts because its cheap and extremely effective. Russia still produces tanks and artillery. I don’t know why people get so bloodthirsty, outright war between Russia and NATO is the last thing anyone should want.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              12 hours ago

              Russia is a huge country, with 146 million people. Russia does have nukes, and does have a modern millitary with industrialized production outpacing NATO. Again, a war with NATO would be long and bloody, but likely would result in Russia winning or both sides losing. War with Russia should be the last thing anyone wants.

              Israel couldn’t even beat Iran, and Israel has all of the fanciest tools NATO has. A war with Russia would be long, bloody, and benefit nobody.

              • lepinkainen@lemmy.world
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                ”Modern military” is a stretch. They have handfuls of wunderwaffen but the bulk of their equipment is relatively ancient.

                There’s a reason we don’t see their latest and greatest tanks and planes, because they don’t have any. The vast majority of tanks in Ukraine are older than the internet 😝

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  8 hours ago

                  Both sides have sizable soviet stockpiles, but both Russia and NATO have been supplying modern arms and equipment.

                  • lepinkainen@lemmy.world
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                    So where are the T-14 Armatas and Su-57s then?

                    Hint, they have about a dozen Armata TOTAL as well as the Su-57

                    Compare that to the 1200+ F-22 already delivered as well as the F-35

      • sgtlion [any]@hexbear.net
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        Weren’t all these points equally valid when the West actively thrust Ukraine into war, too?

        You’re assuming NATO instead maybe cares about the lives of non-Ukrainians in Europe, I wouldn’t rely on that. We are all meat for the MIC profit blender. Winning or losing the war is almost irrelevant, no citizen of the core is safe so long as their deaths might make line go up in the short term.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          Ukraine is an attack dog for NATO, and porkie would love to send workers to war, but not if it hurts their bottom line. That’s why they’ve tried to use proxies like Ukraine.

      • Diplomjodler@lemmy.world
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        Russia has had its ass kicked with western hand-me-downs. Once they roll out the real kit, the whole thing will be over within days.

        • Matty Roses@lemmygrad.ml
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          You’ll be greeted as liberators?

          Well, not YOU personally . . . Chickenhawks saying this crap never seem to make it to the front lines.

        • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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          Russia is winning now, and hasn’t fielded the “real kit” either. NATO just does not have the productive capacity to field a long term war. I’m not sure why warmongers like yourself keep thinking there’s going to be a grand turning point, in a decade when we look back on this event I fear the warmongers will say they knew the outcome all along.

          • humanspiral@lemmy.ca
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            the warmongers will say they knew the outcome all along.

            Ukraine war was instigated to eliminate nordstream and capture EU to US energy before renewables could take hold. Also sweet weapons profits. Absolutely the theater of it has a predetermined plot ending with Russia winning. The goal was to make that last 10+ years. Any end to any war is a defeat for US energy and weapons profits.

            • limer@lemmy.ml
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              There is nothing militarily nato can do. Even if different countries wanted to help more and actually fielded armies, it would be a stalemate. Only a political solution will work.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  Because it doesn’t have the power to take down an industrialized nuclear power like Russia in a short term war. I don’t see what you’re imagining here.

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                    1 day ago

                    Last time they tried our grandparents took 105 days to beat Russia with very little formal military and even less hardware. Sure, we had some help back then too, but today it’s on a whole different level. And we’re just a single small country up north, NATO as a whole is quite a bit bigger.

                    Russia currently has lost million soldiers and stockpiles of soviet relics are pretty much empty with a strong breeze away from total economy collapse. They don’t have power to conquer a potato field from a modern western country right now, much less against the whole global west.

            • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              Not at all, and I don’t think ableism is a substitute for a point. I want the war to end, which means peace talks now and concessions from Ukraine.

              • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                1 day ago

                Why should they concede anything. They’re a sovereign nation, and owe nothing. The war can end right now by Russia returning back whence it came.

                • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
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                  1 day ago

                  Because they are losing the war. The world does not run on Marvel-logic, Russia isn’t going to stop until their stated goals are met.

                  • rustyfish@piefed.world
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                    1 day ago

                    Oh, now it’s a war again. Before that you called it a special military operation. At least you are learning. Slowly, but hey: baby steps.

                  • fox2263@lemmy.world
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                    1 day ago

                    They may be “losing”. But Russia isn’t entirely “winning” either.