We already know what will happen because we’ve already seen what happened during the tariff war. The reality is that American economy is entirely dependent on goods from China to function. If the Burger Reich gets too uppity then China will shut off the flow of treats. It’s really that simple.

That’s also a great point.

Oh hey, quick question. Did you know that Iran sells most of its oil to China? Guess what would happen if the Burger Reich tried to interdict Chinese ships. China will simply stop selling essential things to you like they did during the tariff war, and then daddy is going to have to beg Xi for forgiveness again so your economy doesn’t collapse.

What’s actually happening here is that Russia is grabbing the market early and undercutting the Burger Reich. Once they’ve secured customers then prices will obviously go up.

exactly

Basically, Trump is creating a hostage situation here. He’s saying he’s willing to blow up world economy even if it takes the US down with it. He’s basically bluffing trying to somehow convince other countries to join in the war on Iran through coercion.

Calling Ansar Allah rebels is kinda silly given that they’re the government that controls vast majority of the country. It’s the official government of Yemen.

I don’t really think escalation is a concern for Iran at this point. It’s pretty clear the US army is at the limit of what it’s able to do here. They can try put boots on the ground next, but that’s going to be a disaster for them. They could ultimately try using nukes, but I’m not sure even the US public would accept that. There are not that many options left. So, it makes perfect sense for Iran to start causing casualties to make this whole thing as costly as possible.

no disagreement there

He acts as an accelerant to be sure, but same direction of travel would’ve been happening without him.

In a way, I find it preferable because he pulls back the curtain and shows the empire for what it really is. A more slick imperial asshole might’ve actually been smart enough to sell these atrocities in a way that western public would accept.

Trump is just the front man.

kind of ironic with the BBC being the UK regime mouthpiece

I imagine Iran is just going through the motions to show that they’re not being unreasonable. When the US exposes themselves as they inevitably will, it’s going to be clear to the whole world who is escalating.

I think you may be overestimating how tethered to our shared reality Trump is here.

exatly

exactly

yeah I expect the negotiations are going to fail over the weekend

Personally, I think a major war is not a likely scenario. I’m expecting something more akin to the Soviet collapse in the 90s.

Again, I see no material basis for 28 administration caring about Europe. Things are only going to get worse economically in the next couple years, and the US is going to have to husband their resources that much more as a result. The rise of nationalism in Europe is also inevitable for the same reason. As the economic situation continues to deteriorate, the countries that are better off will start pulling up the ladders.