Microslop is doing everything to promote Linux. So yes, I think 10% is possible.
If you look at OS on steam its about 3%, but filtered for English, its 7% in that market.
Its kinda on its way there already in some markets.
It’s currently at 8.27% on the gamingonlinux tracker: https://www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
In thw wikimedia stats, linux usage is around 5 to 6% and seems to be growing
Yes. Not because Linux PCs become so much more common, but because Windows PCs become much less common.
More and more people (normies) don’t own a desktop and only use tablets or phones. As the percentage of normies who own a desktop decreases, it will become more of just a nerd thing to have an actual desktop PC … and those kinds of people are much more likely to run Linux.
For the education sector and software developer sector these numbers are already met and well exceeded. For the consumer desktop, yes, I think so. I think some big company other than Valve and Google will sell a Linux desktop machine, be it x86 or ARM. When most of the stuff consumers use is through the browser, OEMs clinging to Windows is not going to last forever.
Dell already offers some models with Ubuntu on them.
And Lenovo, I saved $100 and the time to setup Ubuntu on my Thinkpad. But I’m picturing something that is Linux only and a major release like a Chromebook or the Steam Deck were/are.
Yes, I think it’s realistic if we look at how things in computing have changed even just within the last few decades.
https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, IE was at ~65%, Chrome at <2%, we’ve gone from that to “IE does not exist” and Chrome in the same spot IE was then
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202603 in early 2009, Windows was at ~94%, now it is at ~26% with Android having taken the top spot, even that is just at ~37%, so there is now no dominant operating system overall
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide#monthly-200901-202603 even disregarding mobile devices, Windows has fallen from ~95% to ~61% in that time frame
and maybe I’m just old but early 2009 doesn’t seem an enormously long time ago somehow
2009 maybe doesn’t sound super long ago, but it’s 17 years, that’s almost the midpoint between now and when operating systems became mainstream.
yeah, why not?
To my mind, Linux used to be a niche alternative to Windows, but it’s grown a lot and I forsee it becoming the default alternative to MacOS. I think Windows is done as a platform in the short-medium term.
Well said, sir. Gonna steal it, when an appropriate conversation arises.
Why not? Windows is an utter shit. Migrating masses isn’t that complicated as it seems. I forced a friend to install Fedora, basically refusing to help him with Windows. I wasn’t even lying to him, I have no idea how to deal with Windows, haven’t used it for like fifteen years or more. He did a lot of unnecessary things, like selling his laptop, buying a new one, selling it, buying another one, facing some similar issues. I kept telling him ‘just fucking just Fedora and see if it’ll work better with your issue’ (he had some weird sleep issues). Turned out Fedora was flawless for him. And his favourite game — Dota 2 — works even better.
Now, he said he would probably just use Linux, if he’d manage to understand some basics. I think he will. He’s not in tech, a handyman, or like that. He can do basic computer stuff, but no more than that. He says it’s like operating a tablet. (I suggested him Atomic Fedora Silverblue.)
I can see Apple getting huge market share, thanks to its new MacBook Neo. Linux is similar, as I keep telling people that it’s very similar to macOS, but cheaper. That very friend said he’d probably buy a Neo to himself, as he doesn’t need more compute power for his needs. But I don’t see him buying anything more powerful than Mac mini. I keep selling him Linux, telling that for his needs (basically light browsing and very light Steam gaming), any similar mini computer with Fedora is plenty.
I see him proposing Linux to his close ones. At least his close circle of computer illiterate people, like mom, wife, brother, and so on. So, one relatively skilled person can help convert many others. He’s capable of installing (but not maintaining) Linux, but if it’s good enough out of the box, he can install it for others too. When he needs help, I happily help him. A GPT makes it trivial for me to combine a quick simple tutorial for him. He could ask a GPT himself, but it’s not as safe as with me, since I understand very well whether the bot is hallucinating or not. So, me alone, I can help migrate many people. Me, I migrated from macOS, I think that adds to the story either.
Yes. It’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years. There are several major external factors at play: Valve helping to push gaming on Linux, the continued and increasingly big enshittification of Windows, and the current deranged US regime (resulting in less trust and less users of US-company-produced proprietary operating systems). Remember that Linux or the open source BSD variants are the only (usable/practical) operating systems you can use if you want to achieve digital sovereignty. Plus, it’s also getting even better over time by itself of course (that’s the internal factor).
it’s already grown from ~1% to ~6% within the last couple of years
Source?
The primary source being cited by most of the articles is U.S. Gov Analytics, (or the less reliable Statcounter, which I wouldn’t rely on.) U.S. Gov Analytics currently places it at around 4.7% over the last 30 days, 4.4% this calendar year, and 5.6% the last calendar year. It was about 6%-ish when most articles were written about the 6% number for the first time.
Steam, so basically just gamers and not regular desktop users, has it more around 2.3%.
That US site’s data includes both mobile and desktop. With a bit of math, you get Linux’s desktop marketshare over 30 days as 7,1%.
Steam’s February data is heavily influenced by Chinese new year. If you only consider Linux Steam users who have set English as their Steam language, Linux’s marketshare is 8,28%.
Literally anywhere on Google. But it also makes sense when you think about ChromeOS & non-us aligned countries - what else are they gonna use?
Yes. Linux plays the long game instead of seeking short-term profits. Linux isn’t even an OS per se, neither is a unified product from one company, and that exactly why I think it will outlast the proprietary products because it’s adaptable, resilient to changes. the only challenge linux faces is hardware getting locked down…
definately. I see anyone who does not go to linux as using something like smartphones or other simpler things and linux being the only game in town for people who use a real workstation. Im not sure windows can survive in the long term in both desktops and the server and I expect apple to basically abandon the desktop thing eventually.
The only reference people have for these kind of judgements is polling by browser.
You’re talking about users of a specific OS who would spend time to not make that known. They would also opt-out if any reporting about there machine specifics for polls, should they be asked.
I can guarantee real world usage is always higher than these polls suggest. I don’t know about 10%, but they are higher in actuality.
I would assume there is going to eventually be an even split: what is not MacOS, which has different dynamics, is going to be Linux variants at home, and Windows in corporate settings. Linux will continue to dominate the server and device markets.
My assumptions are based on flows of money. There is just not a lot of money for Microsoft in OS development for home computers at a time when they are making their money mostly with subscriptions they can easily move online.
Probably only as Desktop space becomes irrelevant.
I think we might see a sharp decline in desktops in favor of lockdown devices (that run Linux under the hood but don’t give you much access), which means the % of desktops that are Linux based will surge.
Only because the desktop market will shrink.
I think most people’s computing will go to phones, tablets, or phone/tablet-like devices (like Chromebooks or the Macbook Neo) that don’t really count as desktops. I think the PC hardware market will shrink.
What’s left will be PC enthusiasts and gamers clinging to their existing hardware, and TBH I can see 15% of those moving to some linux flavor as Microsoft basically sunsets desktop Windows.
Business workstations will be stuck with Windows forever, though.
that has already happened tbh
