“When you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.”
I am very sceptical of this. Lukashenko brokered a deal? He’s a Putin puppet, why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him? What would that deal look like? Does Prigozhin become head of the MoD or Putins designated successor? He’s right there outside Moscow, he has the leverage, why would he blink?
Putin called him a traitor, an enemy of the state, why would Putin back down from that point, he already looks weak, why look weaker via a U-turn? Prigozhin must know he’s a dead man if he backs down, he knows the play book, why would he trust in the deal?
Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out? Was the voice recording that is the ultimate source of all this a Russian State propaganda play? Is it a play by Wagner to buy time to consolidate his forces before he moves on Moscow? But then, he has to be the one to move fast and hard…
Whatever is going on, we don’t know. Next 5-24hrs will be key.
He’s a Putin puppet
A common misconception.
Lukashenko has been around longer the Yeltsin. Putin, Medvedev, and Putin 2: Electric Boogaloo. I would bet money that he’ll be around after Putin’s demise as well - whenever that will be.
As much of an idiot lackey as he seems - he’s always been to squeeze what he wants out of Russia while squeezing from the West as well. Visa relationships, for example - are a good metric for international diplomacy. Americans can travel visa-free through Minsk Airport for up to 30 days. Think about that. And also - he’s managed to survive his own coup/revolution attempts. And yes, with Russia’s support - but he’s still done it.
The war put him in a precarious balancing act where has simultaneously play nice with Moscow without getting Belarusian troops actually involved in battle. It keeps him in power.
I’m not saying Luka is smart or cunning. But he’s maintained power for 30+ years. He’s experienced in it.
why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him?
Nobody knows.
But I’m speculating Belarus offered him something very special. Maybe Moscow will oust Shoigu, and Belarusian ‘diplomacy’ will be seen as legitimate.
A distracted Moscow would be a premium opportunity for Belarusian activists and freedom fighters to organize another revolution. Last night, Lukashenko flew his family to Turkey. So… we can speculate as to how confident Luka was feeling.
Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out?
The “out” would’ve been for Putin to recall troops to Moscow to ‘deal with the Wagner problem’. It would’ve given him an out and he would’ve seemed competent to do so.
Afterwards, he can say “its clear need to fix problems in the Russian military before we can help our lost brothers in Ukraine” and call an indefinite ceasefire. Then funnel money into military development indefinitely, like a fascist does.
But that’s not what’s happening… Wagner might just go back to fighting in Ukraine later today.
The news is happening at lightning speed. Nobody knows what’s going on. Absolutely wild times.
Fair points all in.
The long and the short will hang on wether Prigozhin has loyalists installed at the head of FSB, Ministery of Interior, and Ministery of Defence…
If not, It’ll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.
If yes, Prigozhin basically is in control of the Russian Federation in all but name.
If not, It’ll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.
My money’s on ‘blunder’. However, I don’t see Prigozhin being killed anytime soon. The criminal case against him was closed and he’s moving to Belarus. He’s incredibly popular - especially amongst Russian Ultranationalists, they’d risk martyring him.
Then again, moving to Belarus - he would be freer to criticize Russian Federation from a comfortable distance… and would be a thorn. TBD, I guess.
At what point, if ever, in Russian politics has self-canibalisation been a problem for them?
Putin has thrown down against Prigozhin, brought Alltwen arms of State to bare… and allowed him to walk away…?
If you think he’s blundered I would caution about underestimating him, a brutal, ruthless bastard… for sure, but not a fool…
If he was a fool he wouldn’t have got to the position he has at Wagner in the first place…!
My gut feeling is that this is a burn after reading moment.
If there’s anything following politics has taught me, is that fools can be highly effective with a little bit of luck.
And I agree with you. Fool or not, I wouldn’t underestimate the guy.
I think bacause the media always portrays Russia in a certain way, you expect now that Prigozhin is instantly dead, no trial, shot on sight, missiles onto his residence… this is not the reality. In the West, there is no mutual understanding and negotiation, somebody always has to “own” somebody else, down-to-the-knees-lick-my-boots type. This fails to project to Russia and other countries outside the G7-bubble. Imagine that maybe, maybe the Russian government can reason and think, if it is feasable to start an internal war along a first or instead just send through Lukashenko a promise to him to call back his army? Also Putin never called him directly a traitor, even if he is one, because that isn’t the style of Russian officials to call people names (unlike Western & Ukrainian policians).
I swear you guys can only compare the world to Game of Thrones, Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter and map every villan so slavic politicians.
I think because the media always portrays Russia in a certain way, you expect now that Prigozhin is instantly dead, no trial, shot on sight, missiles onto his residence… this is not the reality.
so how 'bout that trial
Good question, wasn’t Russia appearing on an international summit right after blowing him up? Also it made the most sense to kill him after resolving a coup in no way another country would do, and throw that show of diplomacy away? And lose influcence in Africa with his death? You’re like the high iq people who think Nemzov gets shot right in front of the Kreml is not made for Western audiences and media?
Also, blazero, how 'bout doing something else than creeping through my profile, like blazing some skunk or idk finding your Taiwan nation
Im sorry, it was too perfect. ‘this would never happen’ immediately happens
down-to-the-knees-lick-my-boots
You’re very familiar with that, huh?
Fake out of the century
What do you mean?
Just that this is a wild turnaround to happen in 24 hours. I think everyone was expecting this to be much larger.
I think he thought was going to get support from Russia’s military and he didn’t, so this is the best he can get without getting him getting MIA’ed.
Some analysts are waiting to see a withdrawal before they actually believe one is happening.
What do your analysts say now?
Careful with that window, Eugene
What could the deal possibly entail that would make them immediately turn back? So curious
Staying alive is a big motivator for most people.
Well putin still has rockets he can rain down on them if he chose to and unlike ukraine they dont have western rockets to defent them…i think prigozhin better learn to fly soon…and mercs are generally a bad idea unless you run them…
and mercs are generally a bad idea unless you run them…
Well the entire affair is basically a Prigozin response to Russia wanting to run them closer so they do know that. Interestingly enough his gamble was apparently to check if Russian government is really as weak as western and UA media says and the support in army is crumbling. It turned out that propaganda is wishful thinking and nobody outside Wagner Group supported the endeavour and afaik even a lot of Wagner personnel said they didn’t sign up for that.
But, neither side could just admit they were in wrong so that’s why Lukashenko proposal came in and now they can just talk and resolve it one way or another.
This could have been an email.
I just asked Chat GPT to write this lol it turned out super wordy, but made me laugh to imagine that.
Subject: Resignation and Relocation: Charting a New Course
Dear President Putin,
I hope this email finds you in good health and high spirits. With a heavy heart, I write to tender my resignation as the head of Wagner, effective immediately. Please allow me to explain the reasoning behind this decision and outline my future plans.
Throughout my tenure at Wagner, it has been an immense honor to lead our dedicated mercenaries in service to our beloved country. Together, we have undertaken countless missions, safeguarding our nation’s interests. However, recent developments have given rise to an increasing misalignment with the Russian generals, most notably Defense Minister Shoigu. This misalignment has significantly impeded my ability to contribute effectively, causing a sense of professional disillusionment.
In light of these circumstances, I have made the decision to relocate to Belarus, a nation that has captured my attention with its unique prospects and conducive environment. This move represents an opportunity for personal rejuvenation and the exploration of new horizons.
Although I am stepping down as the head of Wagner, I want to assure you of my unwavering dedication to our shared cause. Consequently, I have chosen to leave behind a select group of highly capable and devoted mercenaries who may be interested in joining the esteemed ranks of the Russian military. I trust that, under the guidance of the current leadership, they will continue to excel and make significant contributions to our collective goals.
I am deeply grateful for the support and guidance you have provided me throughout my tenure at Wagner. Your unwavering commitment to our nation’s well-being has served as a constant inspiration. I am confident that under your astute leadership, Russia will continue to flourish and thrive.
I kindly request your understanding and approval of my resignation, along with any necessary arrangements that may be required during this transitional phase. This email serves as my formal notification, and I am prepared to provide any additional information or assistance as necessary.
Once again, I express my heartfelt appreciation for the opportunities entrusted to me and the confidence you have placed in my abilities. It has been an extraordinary journey, and I look forward to embracing new challenges and opportunities with a sense of anticipation and optimism.
Thank you for your attention, President Putin.
Yours sincerely,
Yevgeny Prigozhin
Former Head of Wagner
