Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.

If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.

Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.

At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.

Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.

IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.

Or… we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.

My gut feeling is that this is a burn after reading moment.

If there’s anything following politics has taught me, is that fools can be highly effective with a little bit of luck.

And I agree with you. Fool or not, I wouldn’t underestimate the guy.

If not, It’ll rank amongst the biggest blunders in Russian political history, and Prigozhin will be dead in short order.

My money’s on ‘blunder’. However, I don’t see Prigozhin being killed anytime soon. The criminal case against him was closed and he’s moving to Belarus. He’s incredibly popular - especially amongst Russian Ultranationalists, they’d risk martyring him.

Then again, moving to Belarus - he would be freer to criticize Russian Federation from a comfortable distance… and would be a thorn. TBD, I guess.

He’s a Putin puppet

A common misconception.

Lukashenko has been around longer the Yeltsin. Putin, Medvedev, and Putin 2: Electric Boogaloo. I would bet money that he’ll be around after Putin’s demise as well - whenever that will be.

As much of an idiot lackey as he seems - he’s always been to squeeze what he wants out of Russia while squeezing from the West as well. Visa relationships, for example - are a good metric for international diplomacy. Americans can travel visa-free through Minsk Airport for up to 30 days. Think about that. And also - he’s managed to survive his own coup/revolution attempts. And yes, with Russia’s support - but he’s still done it.

The war put him in a precarious balancing act where has simultaneously play nice with Moscow without getting Belarusian troops actually involved in battle. It keeps him in power.

I’m not saying Luka is smart or cunning. But he’s maintained power for 30+ years. He’s experienced in it.

why would Prigozhin cut a deal with him?

Nobody knows.

But I’m speculating Belarus offered him something very special. Maybe Moscow will oust Shoigu, and Belarusian ‘diplomacy’ will be seen as legitimate.

A distracted Moscow would be a premium opportunity for Belarusian activists and freedom fighters to organize another revolution. Last night, Lukashenko flew his family to Turkey. So… we can speculate as to how confident Luka was feeling.

Was the whole thing a psy-op to give Putin an out?

The “out” would’ve been for Putin to recall troops to Moscow to ‘deal with the Wagner problem’. It would’ve given him an out and he would’ve seemed competent to do so.

Afterwards, he can say “its clear need to fix problems in the Russian military before we can help our lost brothers in Ukraine” and call an indefinite ceasefire. Then funnel money into military development indefinitely, like a fascist does.

But that’s not what’s happening… Wagner might just go back to fighting in Ukraine later today.

The news is happening at lightning speed. Nobody knows what’s going on. Absolutely wild times.