Everyone’s watching oil. That’s the mistake. With Hormuz closed, the real shock is hitting fertilizer, food, and supply chains. This isn’t just an energy crisis. It’s the early stage of a global food breakdown.
There’s almost certainly going to be a farming crisis
Over a long enough timeline, sure.
We’ve already seen egg prices skyrocket thanks to bird flu and beef production sag due to drought and Texas Cattle Fever. I have no doubt we’ll continue to see agricultural productivity drag as ecological conditions worsen.
But the fixation on the Straight of Hormuz as a but-for cause to a global agricultural crash jumps the gun for a host of reasons. The most notable of which is that we heavily overproduce agricultural goods and end up subsidizing their wholesale prices. The biggest problems populations have with famine in the modern era is of storage, distribution, and financialization, not raw productivity. A hiccup in the supply of nitrogen rich fertilizer isn’t going to empty anyone’s shelves.
It’s not gonna be that long. The planting season is happening right now, and we’ll see the effects of that by summer and fall. And if there’s still shortage by next planting season, then we’re entering a structural shortage. The LNG plants are going to take years to repair, so this isn’t a blip as you put it.
And you’re right that some regions like the west overproduce and throw out food. Here, it will be possible to be less wasteful if the governments step in. However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.
The LNG plants are going to take years to repair
One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.
However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.
No, nitrogen wasn’t lined up. This is a widely reported problem. It’s not a type of fertilizer that gets stored. And it’s not one section of one country, it’s majority of Gulf states at this point which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply. The issue isn’t even passage at this point, it’s that production has been shut down.
I’m not sure how the supply chain works but if we’re terrible at distributing resources now (because wealthy countries get a lot and poor countries don’t) I worry there will be even less for the poorest food importers
Over a long enough timeline, sure.
We’ve already seen egg prices skyrocket thanks to bird flu and beef production sag due to drought and Texas Cattle Fever. I have no doubt we’ll continue to see agricultural productivity drag as ecological conditions worsen.
But the fixation on the Straight of Hormuz as a but-for cause to a global agricultural crash jumps the gun for a host of reasons. The most notable of which is that we heavily overproduce agricultural goods and end up subsidizing their wholesale prices. The biggest problems populations have with famine in the modern era is of storage, distribution, and financialization, not raw productivity. A hiccup in the supply of nitrogen rich fertilizer isn’t going to empty anyone’s shelves.
It’s not gonna be that long. The planting season is happening right now, and we’ll see the effects of that by summer and fall. And if there’s still shortage by next planting season, then we’re entering a structural shortage. The LNG plants are going to take years to repair, so this isn’t a blip as you put it.
And you’re right that some regions like the west overproduce and throw out food. Here, it will be possible to be less wasteful if the governments step in. However, some developing countries will have genuine shortages.
Which means the planting supplies were lined up months ago. This will be a next-year thing if it cannot be corrected for in time.
One section of one country’s exports in a global economy. And that’s ignoring the fact that the Straight isn’t shut down for everyone. The IRGC is negotiating passage for a bunch of unaligned states. Pakistan is going to get their fertilizer. China and Russia will get their supplies. Italy and Spain will be fine. It’s the US-Israel block that’s in trouble. And given how much fertilizer the US produces domestically, not even that much trouble.
The biggest threat to developing countries is western intervention. The famines happening along the Horn of Africa are the direct result of US, Israeli, and Qatari backed military interventions.
No, nitrogen wasn’t lined up. This is a widely reported problem. It’s not a type of fertilizer that gets stored. And it’s not one section of one country, it’s majority of Gulf states at this point which accounts for roughly 20% of global supply. The issue isn’t even passage at this point, it’s that production has been shut down.
Meanwhile, US farmers are already seeing fertilizer shortages and fuel prices going up. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/23/business/fertilizer-prices-iran-war-farmers
Western interventions are a whole separate problem for developing countries. That doesn’t detract from food production issues in any way.
I’m not sure how the supply chain works but if we’re terrible at distributing resources now (because wealthy countries get a lot and poor countries don’t) I worry there will be even less for the poorest food importers