• MrSulu@lemmy.ml
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    6 hours ago

    Trump does not give a shit (other than those he creates accidentally during press conferences) Meanwhile

    1. The US abandons more agreed deals and so idestroying nternational standing
    2. Other nations likely already thinking nuclear deterrence is the way forward
    3. China and Russia directly gaining support / relationships as trust in US is in tatters
    4. US likely to need to conceded to Iran’s terms in the future
    5. Israel gets the multiple genocides it seeks.
  • panda_abyss@lemmy.ca
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    8 hours ago

    If by long they mean 3-5 years sure.

    But in 10-15 years nobody will let the Strait of Hormuz get blocked like this again.

    The US has been playing the short game of 1-2 days.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.mlOP
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      7 minutes ago

      The only way around Hormuz is by embracing renewables. And if countries get serious about doing that, then it would be the best possible outcome of the whole thing.

    • emergencyfood@sh.itjust.works
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      5 hours ago

      But in 10-15 years nobody will let the Strait of Hormuz get blocked like this again.

      How??? You have giant, slow, unarmed ships filled with flammable liquid that are forced to go through a small channel. Forget missiles and drones; you could set them on fire with artillery.

      More likely, in 10-15 years we will have moved away from fossil fuels to the point that a closure will no longer crash the world economy.

      • youcantreadthis@quokk.au
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        5 hours ago

        You could set them on fire with shit i can buy at home depot and an inflatable kayak.

        In an area as constrained as the straits, im not entirely sure you’d need the kayak.

      • fizzle@quokk.au
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        5 hours ago

        a closure will no longer crash the world economy

        I don’t think we will reach that point in a meaningful timeframe.

        My understanding of the global oil market is rudimentary but… even if we were only using half the oil we presently are when the strait was shut down, the same portion would likely be coming from there, so the “shock” would still be the same because increasing production elsewhere to increase supply is non-trivial.

        That said, if a big chunk of transportation infrastructure has been “decarbonised” then sure, fuel costs might increase while transport costs are less effected.