Countdown before US and Israel bomb such a ship.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they attempted piracy, considering recent events
Massive China and Russia win here.
Sure, the US might be on the wrong side of Palestinian genocide and the new Iran war, but the proxy war against Russia is still the Good War™ /s
Just One More War
Was pretty hilarious to watch all these takes where people were saying how Iran can’t close the strait because that would hurt its allies. As if it was a binary thing as opposed to them being able to choose which ships will pass through.
Oh absolutely, that’s probably why they aren’t mining the strait but just blasting those that try.
Exactly, they don’t have to take any extreme measures like mining because the mere threat is enough for insurers to pull back. This is exactly what Yemen was doing in Suez, and proved to be extremely effective.
Yep! This coupled with Europe’s pivot to Russian LNG is going to be pretty huge for deteriorating US/EU relations.
we can only hope
EU seems pretty split now itself, with the Spain/Germany spat. I’m not getting my hopes up for that to manifest anything at the present moment though.
Same, I think it’s going to be a while yet, but the cracks are definitely forming.
you would thinking mining would be the go-to move since so much of the western world might join in the fray to protect their financial & military assets.
It’s the nuclear option, right now Iran wants to stay on Russia and China’s good sides.
speaking of nuclear: i wonder if tel-aviv/washington/london/paris would launch a nuke if iran makes too much progress in neutralizing all of the western assets in the region and if beijing or moscow would step in at that stage.
I don’t really want to think about that. Tens of millions of people would likely die in the process and World War III may get kicked off.
… World War III may get kicked off
i’m bet beijing and moscow will nope out of it because of this.
I suspect that the US and others may have operated on the assumption that Iran was weak or on the verge of collapse. But, I also believe that the truth is coming out that Iran is actually much more prepared and robust than the US wishes to admit.
At this rate, the petro-states may end up suffering massive losses, creating knock-on impacts on the US economy. Everyone should be moving with urgency. This is actually a consequential war not in the bogus religious sense with references to “Armageddon”, but rather a power shifting moment from the age of superpowers to multipolarity. Only trouble is…no one advertised how destructive and violent that age shift would be.
At this rate, the petro-states may end up suffering massive losses
A few have large Shia populations, and may have revolutions of their own before this is over, which is the opposite of what the US & Israel want.
From a logical view, the US has every reason to stop the conflict and declare an end to the war. As others pointed out the war math doesn’t add up because modern 21st Century drone warfare can produce effective drones at 5 figures a unit and US interceptor technology produces missiles at 7 figures a unit. A child can already decide who will run out first. Readers will also know there are hypersonic missiles, and a combination of technologies that have already defeated the so called Iron Dome.
Iran on the other hand has operated with mostly a “tit-for-tat” approach, responding in kind to aggression and then de-escalating. And this pattern is simple enough for the world public to make out and appreciate. With the US potentially disrupting the economy and daily life of Iran and Iranians in general, I think the logic follows that Iran will simply do the very same thing to the US.
Trump has shifted a great deal of US wealth into the petro-states as a deposit box of sorts, and in turn, the petro-states have turned a lot of that money back into the US by way of investment. Iran is clearly aware of this - as would be casual readers - and they’re just disrupting that loop with devastating awareness.
there are hypersonic missiles, and a combination of technologies that have already defeated the so called Iron Dome.
I knew Iran had been breaching air defences like the iron dome but didn’t realise they had dipped into their hypersonic supply yet. Would you happen to have any sources or videos? I was under the impression they were saving the more advanced stuff like the Fattah-1 still and had been making do with short-medium range ballistic missiles and shahed swarms.
I’ll walk that comment back. I’ve only heard of suspicions or allegations of the use of hypersonic missiles. But so far I haven’t come across anything more concrete.
i saw a video of what looked like a hypersonic missile but it could be that it wasnt
I think the current understanding is that Iran is leading with all their cheap missiles since American and Israeli defenses will only last a few weeks of sustained attacks. The calculus works out in Iran’s favor to slowly introduce their more sophisticated arms as US/Israeli defenses slowly get overwhelmed.
That’s fair.
Also another point to make, in cynical fashion, Trump remains in power as because he brings profit to all of the correct gate keepers in American politics. If enough disruption to that petro-state to US loop occurs to shake the rattle the US economy, will the US voter finally awaken to its own self-interest and engage the system of checks and balances that the Americans are so fond of mentioning? Even outside readers can see that the US Justice system is corrupted, the use of dark money and the rise of the US billionaires are uncontrollable, and the power within that country is out of balance.
I’ll point out the obvious that the “average” American voter is actually poor, lower class, and on the verge of financial ruin on a day-to-day basis. Will a multipolar world order, a group of states, have the audacity to re-ignite this mentally beat down US public. I think the world, and even Iran, can benefit from that scenario.
Can they succeed?
If the status quo continues, US dysfunction with its out of control billionaire classes will continue to lash at the world itself with their excesses.
Yup, this was very clearly a huge miscalculation on the part of the burger reich. It’s also not clear what they can do now. It doesn’t look like they have the resources for a prolonged conflict like Ukraine, and pulling back would result in utter humiliation and definitively show the rest of the world that the US is a paper tiger.
As they should
I saw Russia and China being criticized for their lack of support for Iran. I’m curious what that support consist of, because afaik they haven’t done much so far.
They provide weapons, intelligence, and economic support to Iran. I’m frankly not sure where the whole narrative that they’re not doing much is coming from. Iran certainly seems to think they’re doing enough.
China should threaten the West with its rare earth elements. Taking out economic allies should be considered a security concern.
You can be criticized for “lack” of support on the absolute scale but still be the ones providing the most support because every other country is doing fuckall.
