The US cannot win a ground war in Iran.
It’s not Afghanistan, it’s not Iraq.
It isn’t a ‘regime.’ It doesn’t have an unpopular government. It isn’t a disparate group of farming communities the British made into a government a hundred years ago.
It’s a decentralized theocratic republic older than pale skin has been in human evolution that, for the last 60 years, has trained and planned for every variation of Israeli and American invasion.
There is no head to cut off. There is no structure to destroy. There is no entity to fall.
You would need to kill all 90 million people, over 40 million of which have been militarily trained and are currently armed, over 60 million of them educated to a college level or higher, all of whom have explicit plans or are in familial contact with those that have explicit plans on how to defend their local territory.
Yes, the US could carpet bomb for a few weeks, but US munition stores are already so low Korea lost all its missile defense and Ukraine is about to lose all US support. Hell Israel cannot keep itself defended and Israel is the US’s number one global defense priority.
The US has no manufacturing base and has no money to spend for munitions. Without that they can maybe sustain another few months of fighting, maybe 6 weeks total if they go boots on the ground.
That is 6 weeks to kill or subdue 40 million people who have been raised and trained specifically to resist US and Israeli invasion and intervention in their lives.
Even in the wettest dreams of the most delusional zionist that would be simply an impossibility.
There is no scenario from this day forward where the Amerisraeli Empire benefits from any action it takes, and there is no world where Iran falls to the Amerisraeli Empire.
The absolute best case scenario is the US pulls out today, concentrates all naval power on Israel’s defense, and prays they haven’t pissed off the wrong part of Iran’s decentralized military and Iran doesn’t destroy desalination plants.
Maybe in ten, twenty years of at least 50% GDP going to manufacturing the US would be ready for proper invasion.
He could try, and fail, and show the world the US has no hard power to back up their soft power since they’ve destroyed their own manufacturing.
Which would be good for the world, don’t get me wrong, but the likely military coup in the US to stop the losses could be devastating if the wrong general gets into power and decides being right is more important than survival and actually uses nukes.