cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/45499964
Recently, Donald Trump has been saying that they are going to stop attacks on Iran very soon saying that Tehran has the “Will” for ceasefire. But does USA really plan to leave Iran? Iran on the other hand has been saying that USA is negotiating with itself.
Do you really think USA will leave Iran? Not at all, because if they do it now, mark my words, ‘Iran will make Nuclear Weapons within a year’. This invasion has given them them not just the political will but also the resources required to do so, as we are seeing a new alliance nexus in building i.e North Korea, Iran, China and Russia. Iran now has a justifiable reason to make Nuclear bombs and legitimise them.
And this is exactly why USA cannot leave now. They cannot afford a nuclear powered Iran and hence this ceasefire tactics seems no more than a method to buy some time for ground invasion.
The toughest part for USA will be ‘Iranian Terrain and its blessed Geography’. This is exactly why US’s Operation Eagle Claw failed. I may hate US for its lack of morality at times, but what I absolutely admire about it is its ability to learn from its mistakes. Its hard to believe that after that failed operation USA would have sat idly. They must have learned about Iranian Geography and what systems will be most suitable against them, and if that is so, this will be a major problem for Iran if USA plans ground invasion. USA’s all time friend Israel too has declared that they will not deploy troops in Iran in case of any ground invasion, which I had anticipated because Israel’s priorities are set. They want Lebanon, and once USA is engaged in Iran, Israel will let its army loose on Lebanon, hence taking a big chunk of Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah.
If USA really goes foots on the ground in Iran, no matter how harsh it sounds, but in current world order, no country stands near USA in raw power, USA will eventually emerge victorious and if that happens, Russia can simply annex Ukraine as it will then have a legitimate reason. Can be called a silent deal between two. If the war is too prolonged, China can eventually seize the opportunity and invade Taiwan, which might not get US support as it would be engaged in Iran and at the same time. That would be the perfect time for India as well to take all of Kashmir from Pakistan and China, India can easily overpower Pakistan and China will never engage on a two front war, it will obviously choose Taiwan over Aksai Chin as Taiwan is the means for CPC to legitimise itself. We can say, it will be like a silent deal between major powers, ofcourse only if USA does a ground invasion.
What do you think? Let me know. Join “BharatDefense”, we discuss this in even more detail there.
Jai Hind
The US cannot win a ground war in Iran.
It’s not Afghanistan, it’s not Iraq.
It isn’t a ‘regime.’ It doesn’t have an unpopular government. It isn’t a disparate group of farming communities the British made into a government a hundred years ago.
It’s a decentralized theocratic republic older than pale skin has been in human evolution that, for the last 60 years, has trained and planned for every variation of Israeli and American invasion.
There is no head to cut off. There is no structure to destroy. There is no entity to fall.
You would need to kill all 90 million people, over 40 million of which have been militarily trained and are currently armed, over 60 million of them educated to a college level or higher, all of whom have explicit plans or are in familial contact with those that have explicit plans on how to defend their local territory.
Yes, the US could carpet bomb for a few weeks, but US munition stores are already so low Korea lost all its missile defense and Ukraine is about to lose all US support. Hell Israel cannot keep itself defended and Israel is the US’s number one global defense priority.
The US has no manufacturing base and has no money to spend for munitions. Without that they can maybe sustain another few months of fighting, maybe 6 weeks total if they go boots on the ground.
That is 6 weeks to kill or subdue 40 million people who have been raised and trained specifically to resist US and Israeli invasion and intervention in their lives.
Even in the wettest dreams of the most delusional zionist that would be simply an impossibility.
There is no scenario from this day forward where the Amerisraeli Empire benefits from any action it takes, and there is no world where Iran falls to the Amerisraeli Empire.
The absolute best case scenario is the US pulls out today, concentrates all naval power on Israel’s defense, and prays they haven’t pissed off the wrong part of Iran’s decentralized military and Iran doesn’t destroy desalination plants.
Maybe in ten, twenty years of at least 50% GDP going to manufacturing the US would be ready for proper invasion.
I agree with you that The US won’t win this war, given the insane geography of Iran and the parallel structures of government and control installed by the state, but the narrative of an ancient theocratic state is not true. The IRI is less than 60 years old and it had to purge their left wing co-revolutionaries in order to actually solidify their hold on the country.
Like, you make Iran seem like a hive mind of anti imperialist soldiers, when in reality, they are humans like us. Iran is also not unified. Not only are there people of different political opinions and attitudes towards the government, there are many different ethnicities, not all of them seeing themselves as Iranians.
But trump is dumb and could still do it
He could try, and fail, and show the world the US has no hard power to back up their soft power since they’ve destroyed their own manufacturing.
Which would be good for the world, don’t get me wrong, but the likely military coup in the US to stop the losses could be devastating if the wrong general gets into power and decides being right is more important than survival and actually uses nukes.