Bosses betting on AI to slash headcount and boost margins are discovering an uncomfortable truth: the strategy isn’t working.
New research from Gartner lays out the problem in stark terms. The analyst firm surveyed 350 global businesses - all with annual revenues above $1 billion, all piloting or deploying intelligent automation - and found that around 80 percent had cut staff as a result.
The returns? Elusive. Companies that reduced their workforces were just as likely to see negative outcomes or marginal gains as they were to generate any meaningful return on investment (ROI).
The conclusion? Layoffs don’t create returns, they just create vacancies.
“Many CEOs turn to layoffs to demonstrate quick AI returns; however, this disposition is misplaced,” said distinguished VP analyst Helen Poitevin and lead researcher on the study. “Workforce reductions may create budget room, but they do not create return. Organizations that improve ROI are not those that eliminate the need for people, but those that amplify them,” she added.
I don’t think it is just failing companies that are doing this.
COVID fundamentally broke the relationship of cost of living to the salary of certain jobs. You don’t need to pay salaries for people to live in Silicon Valley or Seattle if everyone in the department is full remote. So, if you are going to keep the job as full remote, you can base the salary on a more average cost of living and cut wages. You can use AI as an excuse for senior staff layoffs for investors, then quietly hire workers in more parts of the world with lower salaries.
Those of us around for the days when off-shoring was some kind of magic pill will remember how it wasn’t. Outsourcing to some guy in Delhi, Ohio, doesn’t seem so different; apart from time zone, maybe.
Ai isn’t the cause for this but it certainly was the enabler.
Part of the issue with off-shoring was that a lot of the work was contracted to different companies. Nowadays, large companies own the satellite offices so they have better control over the work.
Exactly what’s happening. Job postings specifically exclude larger cities now and low ball the shit out of the offer