cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/45499964
Recently, Donald Trump has been saying that they are going to stop attacks on Iran very soon saying that Tehran has the “Will” for ceasefire. But does USA really plan to leave Iran? Iran on the other hand has been saying that USA is negotiating with itself.
Do you really think USA will leave Iran? Not at all, because if they do it now, mark my words, ‘Iran will make Nuclear Weapons within a year’. This invasion has given them them not just the political will but also the resources required to do so, as we are seeing a new alliance nexus in building i.e North Korea, Iran, China and Russia. Iran now has a justifiable reason to make Nuclear bombs and legitimise them.
And this is exactly why USA cannot leave now. They cannot afford a nuclear powered Iran and hence this ceasefire tactics seems no more than a method to buy some time for ground invasion.
The toughest part for USA will be ‘Iranian Terrain and its blessed Geography’. This is exactly why US’s Operation Eagle Claw failed. I may hate US for its lack of morality at times, but what I absolutely admire about it is its ability to learn from its mistakes. Its hard to believe that after that failed operation USA would have sat idly. They must have learned about Iranian Geography and what systems will be most suitable against them, and if that is so, this will be a major problem for Iran if USA plans ground invasion. USA’s all time friend Israel too has declared that they will not deploy troops in Iran in case of any ground invasion, which I had anticipated because Israel’s priorities are set. They want Lebanon, and once USA is engaged in Iran, Israel will let its army loose on Lebanon, hence taking a big chunk of Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah.
If USA really goes foots on the ground in Iran, no matter how harsh it sounds, but in current world order, no country stands near USA in raw power, USA will eventually emerge victorious and if that happens, Russia can simply annex Ukraine as it will then have a legitimate reason. Can be called a silent deal between two. If the war is too prolonged, China can eventually seize the opportunity and invade Taiwan, which might not get US support as it would be engaged in Iran and at the same time. That would be the perfect time for India as well to take all of Kashmir from Pakistan and China, India can easily overpower Pakistan and China will never engage on a two front war, it will obviously choose Taiwan over Aksai Chin as Taiwan is the means for CPC to legitimise itself. We can say, it will be like a silent deal between major powers, ofcourse only if USA does a ground invasion.
What do you think? Let me know. Join “BharatDefense”, we discuss this in even more detail there.
Jai Hind
I expect that the US will continue to escalate. Leaving Iran will be seen as a massive strategic defeat, and it will show all the vassals that the US is no longer an unchallenged global military power. It would also mean that the US influence in West Asia would collapse, and with it so will the petrodollar. Iran is already forcing trade to shift to yuan now.
All that said, I can’t see any way the US could actually defeat Iran. So, further escalation simply means further destruction of the region, and depletion of the remaining American resources. The longer the war goes, the worse off the US will be in the end. On top of it all, there’s also the global economic crisis that stems from the war, and it’s predominantly hitting US allies in Europe, occupied Korea, and Japan. As their economies start crashing, they will pull the US down with them.