Exactly, the elephant in the room is that the whole value proposition of the US market is the high level of consumption. However, as the country goes into a recession, consumption necessarily drops removing the main reason to trade with the US. What’s worse for the US is that it’s a self reinforcing phenomenon. The less people spend the less reason there is to prioritize the US as a trading partner. As suppliers find new consumers outside the US, the supply of goods to US shrinks leading to rising prices and further drop in consumption.