Trump’s risky gamble to stop Iran from exporting oil shows no signs of succeeding, experts say.

Murtaza Hussain May 01, 2026

The U.S. has been racing against the clock to see whether the Iranian economy can be brought to a breaking point before the rest of the world—much of which is already beginning to feel economic pain from the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The administration’s claim that the blockade could destroy Iranian infrastructure, trigger immediate economic collapse, hyperinflation, or shortages, has also been echoed by the New York Times, which recently reported claims from U.S. officials stating that oil wells “cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down,” and arguing that these risks would force Iran to “make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.”

But numerous experts inside and outside of Iran strongly disputed the claim that causing a production shutdown on Iranian oil wells would trigger serious harm to the country’s infrastructure, with one expert calling the claim reported in the Times “egregiously false.”