Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026
A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.
Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”
there is a 0% chance Iran has the capability to sink a carrier.
They’ve got a lot of hypersonics that the fleet has no response to
‘hypersonics’ is the ‘ai’ of the defense industry.
I think you are wrong. Iran has a large suite of ballistic missiles. Unless the carriers stay out of the max range of those arms, a carrier will be sunk.
No, Iran lacks the capability of hitting moving targets at that distance. You need real time data for that kind of operation that basically nobody except the US (globally) and maybe China Russia France and GB (locally) have.
During the retaliatory strikes against Israel they missed targets the size of military bases hat long range.
Let’s circle back on this later. I feel like we are simply dealing with completely different facts (Iran landed a hit on Mossad HQ, in the middle of downtown Tel Aviv). Let’s see what happens after Trump bombs Iran. Hoping it never happens!
Iran is one of about 3 or 4 countries on earth that is both capable and motivated to sink a US carrier. They have one of the most powerful missile forces on earth and will be in the defensive position.