May 4, 2026

President Donald Trump is scrambling to find a way to declare victory in the war against Iran—vacillating between public demands to make a deal and threats to unleash a new round of massive bombing. The U.S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz has sparked a global economic and energy crisis, and neither the blockade nor Trump’s threats have resulted in Iranian capitulation or a willingness to forfeit any of its rights to control maritime traffic in the Strait.

A senior Iranian official told Drop Site that while Iran is actively engaged in indirect diplomacy with the U.S. via mediators, it has no intention of participating in direct talks until the U.S. blockade is unconditionally lifted.

“Based on current assessments, another military attack seems likely. [Trump’s] goals from the naval blockade haven’t been achieved,” the official said. “He can’t keep the blockade going for much longer. We think the U.S. will focus on Hormuz, so military attacks and operations will likely expand along Iran’s coastline, along with a new wave of assassinations [against Iranian leaders] they may pursue jointly with Israel.”